The Rise of Newt

The Republican primaries has been a constant shift in power. Those whose campaigns were one surging such as Rick Perry, Hermain Cain, and Michele Bachmann are now just struggling to keep their heads above water. The only potential candidate who is a realistic victor for the party's nominee who has run a consistent strong campaign has been Mitt Romney. With the departure of Herman Cain it would seem that Romney would now be a shoe-in for the Republican nomination. Once again, this race has taken an unexpected turn and the race is still very much up for grabs. 

Seasoned Republican Newt Gingrich who has held numerous political offices such as being the speaker of the House of Representatives, over the course of many decades and has appeared on Fox News countless times is beginning to emerge as Romney's biggest competition in the race. Back in late September, Gingrich finished sixth out of eight in the Florida Straw Poll with only 8.4% of the vote. Only John Huntsman and Michele Bachmann trailed him. It seemed as if the 68-year-old Gingrich time had passed many years ago and that his chances of representing the Republican Party in the 2012 election were slim to none. But with Cain's departure from the race, Gingrich has been given a window of opportunity that many people thought was close to impossible for him to ever obtain. The latest Des Moines Register Poll reveals that the former House Speaker has won the support of 25% of the 401 probable Republican caucus-goers. This marks a huge change from his 7% that he claimed back in October. Gingrich is very confident about his chances of winning the nomination as well. Last week he told ABC news that "It's very hard to not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high that I'm going to be the nominee."

Unlike Cain, some of Gingrich's decisions years ago are proving to benefit him in the long-run. Gingrich and Cain have a relationship that goes back to his days at the Speaker of the House in which he appointed Cain to the National Commission on Economic Growth and Tax Reform Commission over a decade ago in 1996. One of Cain's top advisers says that he will endorse one of his ex-rivals before the January 3rd caucus', and that person will most likely be Gingrich. This endorsement would give Gingrich's campaign very strong momentum due to the large amount of news coverage it would result in.

However, his recent surge does not mean that Gingrich has just had the nomination handed to him on a silver platter. Although some polls show that many Republicans are distrustful of the front runner Mitt Romney due to his tendency to flip-flop and his left-leaning positions on health care insurance and abortion, opinion polls consistently show that Romney has a far better chance of beating Obama in the election that matters: Obama leads Romney by only two percent while he leads Gingrich by 12%. It is also plausible that his past might turn out to haunt him as well due to his vulnerability to being criticized as being a Washington insider during his Congressional days as well as taking money as a political consultant for big businesses. He also might suffer the same fate as his likely biggest future endorsement Cain did due to his inability to be faithful man in two of his three marriages. Opponents such as Ron Paul who has a very strong base although a long-shot for the nomination as well as Michele Bachmann have voiced their criticism towards him in the past. Despite this adversity, Gingrich is Romney's biggest competition.


Links used:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/04/newt-gingrich-gains-republican-race?newsfeed=true

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69742.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/final-poll-results/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/newt-gingrich-leads-in-new-iowa-poll/2011/12/03/gIQARyz9PO_blog.html

The Cain Train Is Oficially Derailed

The race for the Republican Party's nomination has been an intriguing, suspenseful, and controversial battle thus far. Candidates who have entered the race from the starting point that were seen to have no shot in being a contender at all have surged in the polls. Former front runners have have had devastating demises such as Rick Perry once it was uncovered that his hunting ranch in rural Texas had a rock in front of the entrance with a racial slur spray-painted on it. Current candidates such as Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are trying to accomplish what they have tried and failed to do throughout their career, while others such as Herman Cain are just trying to establish their presence in the political arena.

This week, one of the candidates, Herman Cain, who was at one point in the race seen as a child among adults as well as a serious contender for the nomination has suspended his campaign. As a black man in the "white man's party" with minimal political experience, it was very hard for him to be taken seriously at first. However, at a time when out economy is in shambles, his resume that has business triumphs in his time as the CEO of Godfather's Pizza Company influenced many to believe that he is capable returning our economy to its former prosperity. At the end of the third quarter, his campaign had $1.3 million on hand and $675,000 in debts. However, his catchy 9-9-9 plan plan fueled the once overwhelming amount of enthusiasm that thousands of staunch Republicans  from across the nation once had for his campaign. As a result, his campaign reported in November that they had raised over $9 million in just six weeks.

However, he has been proven to a magnet to controversy and over the course of many debates he has had trouble keeping his big mouth shut. Over the past month, it has been revealed that Cain has a self-destructive Achilles Heel which has led his past to haunt him and sabotage his campaign: women. It has been brought to the public's attention that four women have accused Cain engaging in inappropriate sexual advances and two of them have come forward. Although the validity of these accusations is still questionable, the fact of the matter is that four different women have accused him of the same crime. Whether or not these accusations are true, many would agree that it is unlikely that Cain has remained faithful to his wife throughout their marriage. This week, it seems to have become very clear that Cain most likely has fooled around behind his wife's back. It has been leaked to the public that Cain had a 13-year affair with a single mother from Georgia named Ginger White. She had her first television interview on this issue with ABC's George Stephanopolous in which she described the affair as being "very casual." Unlike his other accusers, White can walk-the-walk as well as talk-the-talk. She has shown to numerous reported and authority figured her phone bill which includes over 60 texts and calls from Cain over the past four months. As a result, the inference man by many of his former supporters seems to be obvious: we do not want another Lewinsky-type scandal in the White House!

This week Cain officially suspended  his campaign and he blamed the media for putting a negative spin on his campaign. Although they did without a doubt played a role in his demise, he still put himself in vulnerable positions years ago whether or not these allegations are true or not. Also, he still made insensitive remarks in regards to immigration and abortion. In other words, Cain crossed the line which is something the media is not responsible for but is responsible for exploiting it. However, Cain has left his mark on the race. As his former opponent Michele Bachman said, "he brought a really important, exciting, energetic voice to the race, and I think a lot of people are going to be very sorry to see him go."

Links used:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cains-exit-gives-him-financial-flexibility/2011/12/04/gIQAnUyfSO_story.html

http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/03/opinion/cupp-cain-candidacy/index.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ginger-white-good-morning-america-alleged-affair-herman-cain-fit-president-article-1.984387

Down to the Wire

Evan Tracy who is the CEO and founder of the Campaign Media Analysis Group explains exactly what his company does. He talks about how last-minute campaigns are becoming more common. He also explains that the common theme in these last-minute campaign as outlines in an article by the Wall Street Journal is that they go for the jugular.

Attack of the Ads

Bill Adair is the editor of the website politifact.com; which rates whether or not an elected official has kept their promises or not as well as whether or not what a politician or ad says is true or not by a "truth o' meeter." In this video, Adair is asked how he rated the validity of the ads thats were for the race for the Florida Senate between Marco Rubio and Charlie Frist.

Perry's Woes Continue

Throughout the majority of August and September, Texas Governor Rick Perry was a serious contender in the race for the Republican Party's nomination for the 2012 election. According to a Rasmussen Poll conducted back in August, Perry was the frontrunner with 29 % of the vote. At the end of the third quarter, Perry lead all of his opponents in the total amount of money raised in the quarter with $17,168,589 raised and had $15,078,415 on hand to go with it. But once the quarter ended Perry found himself heading in a downward spiral that seems to not have an end. The spark was ignited as I wrote about in earlier entries, when it was leaked to the public that outside his hunting ranch in rural Texas there was a rock that had the word "Ni****head" spray-painted on it. From that moment on, Perry has seemed to be self-destructing. He has conducted himself poorly in numerous debates by saying things that made others perceive him as inarticulate and ignorant.

Today, Perry no longer has that commanding lead in the polls that he once did at the end of summer. Instead, his campaign is in shambles and his chances of winning the nomination are slim to none. He has been forced to take drastic and rather desperate measures to help salvage his campaign and to maintain the support that he still has. Recently, Perry invited House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to a debate to most likely prove that he has the brains to be the next Republican Party's nominee for president. Pelosi declined his offer, but could not resist to have some fun along the way. According to an article from cnn.com that was written by Xuan Thai, when Pelosi was asked why declined Perry's offer she said: "It is my understanding that such a letter has come in. Monday I'm going to be in Portland in the morning and I'm going to be visiting some of our labs in the afternoon, that's two, I can't remember what the third thing is I'm going to be doing."This is a reference that was made to mock Perry when he could not remember the third government agency that he said he would shutdown in a recent debate. It seems like Perry has unfortunately for himself been labeled as the clown of the race who nobody seems to take seriously anymore. What makes this so bad for Perry is that the House Minority Leader insulted his intelligence as opposed to mocking his ideologies. This would never happen to Mitt Romney who will most likely win the nomination when all is said and done.

There are growing concerns in his campaign as well. Perry and his campaign manager Rob Johnson spent several days in New Hampshire last week since he has not campaigned this much in this particular state. In fact, on Wednesday a Bloomberg Poll showed that Perry only has 3% of the support from probable voters in New Hampshire. On Monday they attended a meet-and-greet at the Portsmouth's 100 club; in which one attendee described it as being an "Apology Tour." However, two Perry supporters Pam Tucker and Sean Mahoney did not voice any concerns about this so-called "Apology Tour." Despite this there is no question that Perry needs to do more than this if he hopes to win the nomination let alone be the next president of our country.

Links used:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/20/perry-supporters-in-new-hampshire-voice-concerns-to-campaign-manager/

http://roaringrepublican.com/blog/2011/10/18/third-quarter-2011-fundraising-numbers-for-election-2012/

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/gop_primary_perry_29_romney_18_bachmann_13

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/17/third-reason-pelosi-cant-debate-perry-slips-her-mind/

Hoop Dreams

Barrack Obama needs all the help and support that he can possibly get on his journey to of winning the election that is around one year away. Much of the hope that carried Obama in his victory over John McCain in 2008 has evaporated into thin air. In other words, many Americans believe that Obama has fallen short on several of the promises he made in his previous campaign. Promises that our President has broken include: increasing the dividends taxes for higher-income taxpayers, expand the child and dependent care credit, repeal the Bush tax cuts, sign the Employee Free Choice Act, and many more. But above all our nation is grieving about our economy that is in shambles. In regards to how Americans think Obama is handling our economy, only 26% of Americans believe that he is handling our economy well according to a Gallup Poll conducted in August. Also, a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports reveals that just 23% of our population strongly agrees with the way that Obama is handling out government and 38% strongly agrees of what he has done since he has been in office. As a result of the economy, the unemployment rate is at 9.1% are the notorious Occupy Wall Street Movement has reached new heights as seen through the protests that took place week. 

Clearly, Obama is in much need of support if he hopes to re-claim his throne in the upcoming election. Not surprisingly, Obama is once again seeking unorthodox methods to build support for his 2012 campaign. Obama is not adhering to the traditional approach to gain support and raise my by sucking up to interest groups to seek potential donors. Instead, he is heading to the courts. No I do not mean a court of law, I mean a basketball court. 

Our presidents love for the game of basketball has been documented over the past four years in a subtle manner. In the wake of the NBA lockout, the only chance that fans might get to say their favorite players on the court this year is in the "First Ever Obama Classic." The "Obama Classic" is set to take place an a to be determined venue in Washington D.C. on December 12; which is three days before the first possible NBA game will be played if the lockout comes to an end. Tickets that will be purchased to see the "Obama Classic" will go directly to his re-election campaign. This event has already attracted some of the NBA's biggest stars to participate in it including Ray Allen, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin, and Dwight Howard. Former Knick Patrick Ewing is also on board to participate and Cheryl Miller and Tina Thompson of the WNBA are set to be in the "Obama Classic" as well. The Obama campaign also claims that several more players will be in the "Obama Classic" too. Ticket prices vary for this event. There is a limited number of $100 tickets that are reserved for "Gen44" (younger supporters) donors. General admission tickets are priced at $200, premium seats go for $5,000 dollars.

Can the "Obama Classic" have a positive effect on his re-election campaign? Aside from the fact that it does bring in money, it does help him maintain his hip and empathetic image that was a piece to the puzzle that lead him to winning the election in 2008. Also, the sports industry has been known to be predominately right-wing. Although I do believe that this can have some positive effect on his bid for re-election, it will be very minimal at best. He is going to have to do a lot more than just the "Obama Classic" if he hopes to serve a second term in office. 


Links used:


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/19/nba-players-sign-on-for-obama-classic-fundraiser/


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


http://www.gop.gov/policy-news/11/10/07/september-unemployment-by-the-numbers

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149042/new-low-approve-obama-economy.aspx

Bush vs. Kerry

The 2004 election between George Bush and John Kerry occurred at a time of great uncertainty. We were in the midst of the War in Iraq and many people no longer had the feelings that they had about it when it was first waged. As a result, the first question that was asked in the debate was: Will our children ever live in a safe and secure world? Kerry answered the question by being able to improve a better job of ensuring a good level of national security than Bush did. He said that he would do whatever possible to capture the terrorists. Bush responded by saying that we must stay the course in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He highlighted what he thought were triumphs in his War on Terror.

Reagan vs. Mondale

This debate occurred in 1984 when Ronald Reagan was seeking re-election. His opponent was Democrat Walter Mondale. The debated over the federal budget, and Mondale claimed that if he were elected president he would better manage it than Reagan has. Reagan responded by highlighting the triumphs of his budget plan as well as how he will improve it if he is to be re-elected.

The Debates of 1992

In 1992 something new happened: a candidate from the Independent Party (Ross Perot) was not just the theird party candidate but at one point had a legitimate shot at the presidency. His opponents were Republican George Bush Sr. who was running for re-election and Democrat Bill Clinton who ultimately won the election. This excerpt from this debate is about taxed. Bill Clinton criticized Bush's use of trick-down economics because it only benefitted the rich, promised relief for the middle-class, and said he would address deficit spending. Bush responded by saying that Clinton's proposal would be "trickle-down government"; which would be bad for our country. Perot talked about his opinion on the issue and what he would do as president.

The Cain Saga Continues...

There is not doubt that the sexual allegations regarding potential Republican nominee has been the most controversial, entertaining, and shocking development that has taken place in the Republican primaries so far. Last week I wrote about how he has been accused of engaging in sexual behaviors that are inexcusable over a decade ago while he was working for the National Restaurant Association. A week ago, these accusations lacked substance because not one of his four accusers had come forward. 

However, that all changed this week when two of his four accusers Sharon Bialek and Karen Kraushaar came forward and revealed themselves to the public. If these accusations are in fact true, it is obvious that Herman Cain has a thing for blondes. However, the credibility of both of these accusers must be questioned because they are accusing him of these acts that occurred over a decade ago. 

Bialek held a press conference on Monday claiming that the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza groped her. Cain who has repeatedly denied these accusations, agreed to take a lie detector test. The Washington Post reports that a local Atlanta TV station claimed that an advances voiced recognition software used by a private investigator reveals that Cain's persistent denials of his allegations were proven to be true, while it proved the statements that were made by Bialek to be false. Kraushaar's actions following being revealed publicly as one of the four Cain accusers also have vulnerabilities in terms of her credibility. She has originally planned to join Bialek in a joint press conference on Thursday, but declined to do so because the other two women have not yet come forward. Her attorney Joel Bennett claimed that his client (Kraushaar) has made the decision not to hold a press conference "unless and until the other women come forward and wish to participate" according to msnbc.com. Bennett also claims that his client will have no more contact with the media until the other two victims reveal themselves. Also, the chain of events after this supposed act of sexual aggression challenges her credibility. After she left her job where Cain is said to have performed these acts, she filed a similar complaint at her new job as a spokeswomen at the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The Huffington Post reports that two of her former supervisors said that she demanded a settlement of thousands of dollars, a promotion on the federal pay scale, reinstated leave time and a one-year fellowship to Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. Therefore, Kraushaar is either a two-time victim and an apparently is too much to resist for men in politics or quite the manipulator who will stop at nothing to get what she wants. 

Last week I wrote that if these allegations were made public that it would be the end of his campaign. Apparently I was wrong. It seems that no matter what Cain has the ability to remain cool under pressure. On Thursday, his campaign reports that it has raised more than $9 million since October 1st. Shockingly, since the controversy first made the headlines ten days ago, it has raised $2.25 million. That is almost twice the amount of money that he raised between May and September. However, although this is an encouraging sign this has only been out in the open for less than two weeks. This is going to be an ongoing story and more developments will surely follow. 

Links used:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/10/cain-campaign-says-it-raised-9-million-since-october-1/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/us/politics/kraushaar-will-discuss-cain-only-if-other-3-accusers-join-her.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/herman-cains-truth-web-site-touts-him-taking-a-lie-detector-test-sort-of/2011/11/10/gIQAlIdX9M_blog.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/09/karen-kraushaar-herman-cain-accuser_n_1083654.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45249802/ns/politics-decision_2012/

There's a First Time for Everything

Earlier in the semester, I have posted a few blogs about both President Obama's seemingly slim chances of getting re-elected in 2012 as well as the criticism from candidates who are running for the Republican Party's nomination of his policies, actions taken since he has assumed office, and his lack of success in reviving our nations struggling economy. Numbers simply do not lie. According to Rasmussen Reports, on Thursday polls showed that only 22% of the nations voters strongly approve of the way that Obama is fulfilling his role as president. Also, 40% strongly disapprove of the way that he is handling himself as our president; which gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18. A survey conducted by Quinnipiac University shows that as of now the race between would be coming down to the wire with Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney in three key states that he narrowly won in 2008. In Florida, Romney has the edge over Obama by a 3% margin. In Ohio, Obama has the 3% advantage while in Pennsylvania it is neck and neck with Obama having a slim 1% advantage over Romeny. These three states carry 68 electoral votes combined which will more than likely determine the outcome of the upcoming election.

After hearing these statistics, one would think that Obama needs to rely on his charisma and at often times impeccable social decorum to salvage the adversity that he is currently faced with. In other words, Obama will have to filter what he says if he is to assume the throne for another four years. Up until recenty, Obama has yet to have an "opps" moment unlike his potential opponents Herman Cain and Rick Perry. However, Obama's track record in this regard all changed during his recent meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy. During this conversation, Sarkozy exclaimed his resentments towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by in short calling him both unbearable and a liar. Obama replied by saying, "You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him even more than you." Obama's position on Israel has never been the most promising towards his bid for re-election. Mitt Romney capitalized on this opportunity through a statement he made on Wednesday morning. He said that "President Obama's derisive remarks about Israel's prime minister confirm what any observer would have gleaned from his public statements and actions toward our longstanding ally, Israel. At a moment when the Jewish state is isolated and under threat, we cannot have an American president who is disdainful of our special relationship with Israel. We have yet another reason why we need new leadership in the White House." This will most likely result in a loss of votes not just because of the his inferred anti-Israel ideologies but the content as well. Many people will see this as a lack of character on Obama's part.

The Netanyahu comment will most likely haunt Obama throughout his 2012 campaign. Although this was a huge mistake on Obama's part, he has a lot more to worry about. Romney is far from being the only source of criticism for Obama from the right. Obama will have to find a way to defend his jobs bill plan that entails tax increases. Republican advocacy group Crossroads GPS purchased a commercial that will play for the next two weeks in five competitive states for $2.6 million. This commercial contains a clip of Bill Clinton criticizing Obama's plan in which the initiative is to raise taxes. Clearly, the Republicans are taking every advantage they have to attack Obama's weaknesses. It will be interesting to see whether or not our president can overcome these hurdles or not. If he does, I would be shocked because most likely if the election were held today he would lose.

Links used:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/09/gop-group-pits-obama-vs-bill-clinton-on-taxes/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/10/poll-tight-races-between-obama-and-romney-in-three-swing-states/

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/09/gop-group-pits-obama-vs-bill-clinton-on-taxes/

New Social Media Part 1

This video addresses the impact that social media devices such as facebook and twitter have on courts of law. It also raises questions about whether or not facebook and twitter are equipped with adequate privacy policies.

New Social Media Part 2

In this video, the main discussion is bout how to effectively monitor social media devices such as facebook. They look to see if technological changes are needed in order to protect privacy for consumers.

New Social Media Part 3

Conservative activist James O'Keefe talks about his organization and the tactics they pursue to uncover stories. He talked about how he went undercover as a banker at the Occupy Wall Street movement here in New York City. He also discussed the evolving role of social media in politics.

No More Student Loans?!

This new generation of college graduates has been hit hard by our struggling on our economy. While I was watching Real Time with Bill Maher a week or two ago I heard one very alarming statistic: 85% of college graduates go home to live with their parents immediately after graduation. He did not say for how long or why most students move home, but this is still very discouraging news to any college student. There are many reasons as to why this unfortunate trend is occurring. One of them is that the price of college tuition has drastically increased over the years. According to Tamar Lewin in her article she wrote in 2009 in the New York Times College Costs Keep Rising, public four-year institutions have raised their tuition by 6.5% over the past few years while private institutions have increased their tuition by 4.4%. Here are two graphs: one of them shows how college tuition has increased over the past few decades and the other compares this increase to the price change in homes:

As you can see in these graphs, college tuition has become incredibly high. Keep in mind that this does not include personal expenses and room and board. Lewin wrote in her article that many people are looking to combat this problem through student loans. This has resulted in college tuition being treated and looked upon as if one was taking out a loan for their home. As a result, most college students are up to their ears in debt by the time they walk up to the podium knowing that they will be a part of that 85%.

Clearly, the solution to this problem that is counterproductive to reviving our economy lies in price containment as opposed to student loans which has proved to just add fuel to the fire. Ron Paul who despite his lack of media coverage pulled off a landslide victory in the Iowa Straw poll with 82% of the vote, has proposed a plan that would eliminate student loans and in return it would lower the costs of a college education. Paul's budget plan would cut $1 trillion in excessive spending in just one year; which includes student loans. He claims that his budget plan would would result in a more robust economy and new jobs. As a result, the price of education and other services would decline due to an increase in free market competition and a reduction in government interface. He believes that the debt induced by student loans is a direct result of our overly centralized government that promotes ineffective solutions that are being passed by our inefficient federal government. Instead, he proposes that our nations solution to this issue lies within our local governments and private-based market solutions.

It would seem that if Paul's plan were to work and be effective, it would benefit our students in the long run because it takes time for the price of tuition to go down. As a result, it is likely to assume that for a few years less students would matriculate to four-year institutions due to lack of funds. This could actually be a blessing in disguise because I remember that during freshmen year when I went to a big state school, so many kids dropped out not just due to financial reasons, but because they were not ready to keep up with the workload. In fact, the freshmen retention rate at m previous institution was only 70%. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that if Paul's plan were passed we could see a new trend which would entail more students pacing themselves by going to a community college before going to a four-year. In the end, something different must be done to help reduce the magnitude of this issue. Nobody should be up to their ears of debt after four or more years of hard work.

Links used:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/29/ron-paul-wins-both-tallies-at-gop-pres-straw-poll-in-iowa/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/30/ron-paul-defends-eventual-end-to-federal-student-loans/

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/21/education/21costs.html

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/story/2011-10-27/ron-paul-budget-plan/50963452/1

More Controversy

Controversy is always excited in any political race. It provides excitement into a potentially mundane environment, and has the ability to attract more viewers than before for better or worse. In other words, controversy can make others more politically aware not because of the issues that are raised but because they are interested in seeing what events might occur after a particular controversy. So far during this year's Republican primaries, there have been controversies surrounding a few of the candidates. We all remember what was leaked about the racial slur that was spray-painted on a rock outside of Texas Governor Rick Perry's family ranch in rural Texas. Partially as a result, his rating have drastically decreased. Other factors are involved in his demise. 

On the other hand, business tycoon turned politician Herman Cain has been subject to controversy and he is neck and neck with frontrunner Mitt Romney. Previously, all Cain needed to do was just put a filter on what he said. He has said that he believes that we should have an electrical fence complemented with barbed wire along the U.S.-Mexico border to help prevent illegal immigration. Also, his comments regarding abortion did not go over particularly well in the eyes of the public. However, his most recent controversy is not about what he has recently said, it is about what he might have done in the past. The top story around Cain is that he has been rumored to have sexually assaulted a women when he was the head of the National Restaurant Association. This accusation was brought to the table when Oklahoma political consultant Chris Wilson who is ironically a Perry supporter, claimed that he witnessed the acts in person. Here is both him reiterating what actually happened in this circumstance and Cain defending himself of these accusations:

According to Wilson, Cain did a lot more than just compare his supposed victims height to that of his wife's. To make matters worse, Wilson claims that "It was only a matter of time because so many people were aware of what took place, so many people were aware of her situation, the fact that she left-everybody with the campaign that this would eventually come up.” The Huffington Post also reports that a former pollster for the Restaurant Association claims that at least two other women have made similar allegations in the past. Recently while he was meeting with conservative doctors in Northern Virginia, Cain lashed out at reported when they asked him about these allegations. 

The only way in which Cain has been lucky in this stick situation is that the victim has not made her accusations public. If she would, this would certainly result in the termination of his campaign.  But could this mean that end of it already? He is already at a huge disadvantage being a black man in a "white man's party", and although he has excelled in the business world, his lack of experience in office has raised questions like whether or not he is fit to handle our nations foreign policy issues. His 9-9-9 plan is no longer as popular as it once was which has result in him struggling to keep his head above water from his opponents critiquing his plan every chance they get. It is very possible that Cain could be losing his momentum as the minutes go by. 

It Seems Like the "Top-Tier" Has Changed

In one of my first blogs, I posted about how according to various media sources there seemed to be a "top-tier" of candidates in the race for the Republican nomination. The former "top-tier" consisted of Michele Backmann, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry. However, this is far from being the case when one looks at the race now. The race is currently a neck-to-neck battle between the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza Herman Cain and the business oriented Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. Cain and his catchy 9-9-9 plan have contributed to his rise in the polls, as I have discussed in previous blog entries. Romney continues to maintain his powerful force in the race through his strong debates and credentials from both a business and political standpoint. The Iowa Poll has recently shown that Cain has a very narrow lead over Romney with 23% while the Governor from Massachusetts has 22%. According to a survey conducted by CNN, 25% of Arizona Republicans claim that if the primary was held today. Like in the Iowa Poll, Romney only trails him by just one percent. As for the former members of the "top-tier", they are just hanging on by a thread. What could have led to their demise?

The reasons for Perry's fall are obvious in many ways. As I have discussed previously, the about the sign titles "n*****head" in front of his family's Texas ranch makes the task of marketing himself to be the nations next president close to impossible. Also, during last weeks debate in Las Vegas Perry clearly does not have adequate debating skills. He took a jab at Mitt Romney and it completely backfired on him. Instead of fulfilling his objective which was too make Mitt Romney look like a hypocrite, Romney turned his argument on him and made Perry look like a fool. In fact, Perry has even admitted that he regrets participating in the debates. When he has answered questions regarding his inadequate performance in the debates, he has claimed that America is looking for the "slickest" candidate, which has proven to be Mitt Romney. He has also acted on impulse during his campaign. Perry has claimed that those who oppose his views on immigration as "having no hearts." Clearly, the main reason why Perry has dropped in the polls is because he fails to meet the criteria for holding himself in a certain decorum that is expected of candidates who are running for office.

As for Bachmann, the hands that have fed her in the past are now withdrawing their support for her. Bachmann has been the Tea Party's favorite candidate, and now the Tea Party is urging her to withdraw from the race. Ned Ryun, president of the well-known Tea Party group called American Majority has said that "It's time for Michele Bachmann to go." Many people in this group are questioning her motives for running in the first place. American Majority Director Matt Robbins claims that "I think it's pretty obvious that Michele Bachmann is about Michele Bachmann." In other words, it seems like she is running to promote herself. Although her support from the Tea Party has led to her victory in the Iowa Star Poll, it seems like people are starting to see through her act which could very well be the source for her lack of support.

Links used:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/27/tea-party-group-to-bachmann-quit-the-presidential-race/

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/29/8540931-iowa-poll-cain-romney-top-field-ahead-of-caucuses

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/poll-romney-cain-on-top-in-arizona/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/25/perry-expresses-regret-over-taking-part-in-debates/

Rubio Out?

The Vice President has always been over-looked in American history. However, it is very detrimental for the lead candidate in a nomination to choose their running-mate wisely. In the past, hit-or-miss nominees for the most part have usually resulted in a loss in the race for President. For example, in the 2008 election, Senator John McCain took a gamble and chose Sarah Palin who has been a magnet for drama; while Barrack Obama chose the wise and experienced Joe Biden to be the Vice Presidential nominee to compensate for his age and lack of experience. As we all know, Obama came away with the victory and McCain's gamble did not pay off.

Therefore, it is crucial for the to be determined Republican nominee in 2012 to choose the most qualified and conventional running-mate. Currently, the name that comes to mind when asked about who the Republican nominee for Vice President will be is Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Ever since Rubio won his seat in the Senate almost a year ago, he has been a plausible candidate for the nomination. On the surface he seems like a can't-miss candidate. Rubio's Cuban heritage can salvage the Republican Party's standing within the Latino community since they are usually strict on illegal immigration. Not only do some perceive him as the solution to the Republican's lack of Latino support which manifested itself when Obama won more than two-thirds of their votes in 2008, he gives them a leg up in winning his home state of Florida where twenty-nine votes are at stake. Add this with his conservative values and charismatic personality, it seems like he would be the backbone of any of the candidates for the Republican nominees future presidential campaign.

However, this picture is not nearly as perfect as it seems to be. In fact, it is unlikely that Rubio will be chosen to be the Republican Party's nominee for Vice President. Rubio would be faced with the same dilemma that was Obama was confronted with in 2008: his age and lack of experience. If Rubio becomes America's Vice President in 2012, he would be the youngest Vice President since John Breckinridge who served from 1857-1861. Although he is of Latino decent, his stance on immigration could ironically prevent him from gaining support with our nations Hispanic population. According to the president of the pro-Democratic group NDN Simon Rosenberg, "Despite being Hispanic, looking at his (Rubio's) overall record...he seems remarkably ill-suited to be the one reaching out to the largely Mexican migrant community in the key battleground states."


The main reason Rubio would be a highly risky move with a high risk of failure on the ticket is because he has been caught for lying several times about who he really is. Rubio has claimed to be the son of Cuban exiles from Fidel Castro's reign over that nation. This in part has been his claim to fame and a source of information for many. Unfortunately for Rubio, he has been exposed as a fraud in this regard. It has been revealed that Rubio's parents came to America two and a half years later than he has said. Therefore, it is likely to infer that he made this story up to boost the public's perception of him, gain support, and be a source of admiration. The video below is a segment from the Chris Matthews Show which digs deeper into this story:



The true irony here is that Rubio does not even want to run for Vice President. When asked about why he does not want to be the Vice President at this point of time he said, "I want to be a Senator, and I want to be a senator from Florida. I think in the United States Senate I can have a major impact on these major issues that we're facing." Although it does not seem like he will run this time around, I have a feeling once all of this is cleared up and he has some more experience under his belt, he will become a very powerful force for the Republican Party.

Links used:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54039.html

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2011/10/25/video-marco-rubio-rules-out-2012-vice-presidential-run-in-interview-with-bill-o%E2%80%99reilly-blasts-back-at-washington-post-for-%E2%80%98outrageous%E2%80%99-claims-about-his-familys-exile-from-c/

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/10/27/WP-Rubio-Risky-for-GOP-Ticket.aspx#page1

9-9-9 Debunked

Nobody would have guessed a year ago from today that former CEO of Godfather's Pizza Herman Cain would be trailing frontrunner Mitt Romney in the polls by only three percent. Much of the enthusiasm and support that has contributed to his surge in his polls is his catchy 9-9-9 plan. The 9-9-9 plan would implement a 9 percent income tax, a 9 percent sales tax, and a 9 percent business tax. The majority of tax credits as well as deductions and exemptions, the payroll tax, estate, and gift taxed would be eliminated under this plan. Cain and members of his campaign have said that the only exemptions on the income tax will be for charitable deductions as well as for undefined "empowerment" zones whose objective is to promote development in struggling inner-cities. At first, many people thought that this would revive our economy and trusted Cain to use his business experience to lead the way to economic prosperity.

However, people are now starting to look past this cant-miss slogan and are seeing the 9-9-9 plan for what it really is. Unlike the comments regarding his plan a month ago, the 9-9-9 plan is receiving much more criticism than appraisal. According to Jeanne Sahadi's article from money.cnn.com, a whopping 84% of U.S. households would pay more money under Cain's proposed tax policies, than they do under our current tax system. Households that make $30,000 or less would lose between 16% to 20% less in after-tax income than they do today. On the other hand, this plan would produce great benefits for those who make are fortunate enough to make seven figures. If implemented, the 9-9-9 plan would be highly beneficial for those who make $1 million or more annually with an average tax cut of $487,300.

As a result to the obvious favorability that this plan has for our nations most financially stable, many people are now raising awareness of unfair subject matter that the 9-9-9 plan really contains. However, the criticism of this plan is not only heard by those on the left of the spectrum. Several prominent members of the conservative movement have began to speak out against this plan claiming that it would be awful for our nation in this time of an economic recession. During this weeks debate in Las Vegas, Cain's opponents for the nomination wasted no time in attacking him through criticism of this plan that has been the main source of his success.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OxnN2pxMAg   (video cannot be embedded)

Defending the plan that put him on the map has not been an easy task for Cain. As seen in the link provided above, his opponents have found the vulnerabilities that are embedded in the plan and waste no time in exposing them. When Cain has been asked about the evident flaws of his plan like Anderson Cooper did in the debate Tuesday, he claims that they are simply not true. However, that is hard to say since the implementation of this plan would be like pulling the carpet beneath the feet of lower-income household since they would now have to pay a federal income tax, which is something that they are exempt from doing under the current tax system. Clearly, Cain will have to find a better way to rebuttal these questions if he expects to hold his place in the polls, let alone move ahead of the frontrunner Mitt Romney.


Links used:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/oct/18/herman-cain/herman-cain-says-9-9-9-plan-does-not-raise-taxes-t/

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/18/news/economy/cain_999_plan/index.htm

Lesson of the Week: Think Before You Speak

Every candidate in a political race of any form must remember to think carefully of what they say. This is particularly very hard to do in political parties because one must remember that what might be good for their pursuits of the primary, might be what ruins their chances in the general election. In other words, often times a candidate's efforts to win their party's approval over during the primaries has the potential to backfire on them once they win their parties nomination and are running for president because now they have to appeal to everyone across the political spectrum. Therefore, what might appeal to their political party might not appeal to the general public.

In this years Republican Primaries, there have been plenty of mistakes made by numerous candidates that might result in one winning the primary, but might make Obama's road to re-election a little easier. Three of the strongest candidates have said things that will likely result in a lack of support from the growing Latino community. Rick Perry whose past as we know has contributed to his loss of public support, brought up a story about Romney that was leaked to the press in 2006. In this story, Romney was said to had unknowingly hired undocumented workers to mow his lawn. When he realized that they did not hold green cards, he went to the company and said "I'm running for office, for Pete's sake, I can't have illegals." Herman Cain who has been surging in the polls to many people's surprise has also made remarks that most likely creates tension between him and the Latino community. Cain said which he later referred to as a joke that if he were elected he would put an electrified fence with barbed wire on the U.S.-Mexico border that would kill people if they tried to come across. Michele Bachmann has also acknowledged that she would build a double fence to make it harder for people to illegally cross the border. In this time of economic dismay, she has made this issue number one on her priority list and has been subject to accusations of racism.

Hispanics are America's fastest growing minority group in America, who accounted for 47% of both Texas and California's population in 2009. Between both of these states, there are 89 electoral votes to be won. Although it is a norm in the Republican Party to take a hard stance on illegal immigration, controversial comments such as the ones that were recently made can possibly come back to haunt them once they are up against Barrack Obama, who gained 67% of the Latino vote in 2008. Another slip up on this issue by not just these three candidates, during the last Republican debate in Las Vegas, not one of the candidates mentioned that illegal immigration has a much wider spectrum than those who cross the  Mexican border into our country. These comments have made Obama's seemingly uphill battle towards re-election look a little less steep. Most likely, one of these three candidates will wind up winning the Republican nomination, and it will be very hard for any of them to salvage their reputation within the Latino community after their remarks.

Links used:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/romney-explains-record-of-hiring-illegal-immigrants-as-lawn-keepers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/us/politics/on-taxes-and-fences-herman-cain-stumbles-a-bit.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/15/michele-bachmann-border-fence-immigration-perry_n_1012833.html

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1024/exit-poll-analysis-hispanics

http://www.infoplease.com/spot/hhmcensus1.html

http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm

Response to Journeys with George

George W. Bush's two term as president, has been one of the most controversial and criticized presidencies in U.S. history. Many people consider him to be the worst and least intelligent president ever, and some go as far to say that he along with his administration are behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Due to this, many people including myself are not only amazed that he was able to be elected to not just one but two terms in office, but how he even got there in the first place. Alexandra Pelosi's documentary Journeys with George, provides behind the scenes coverage of his 2000 campaign trail while he was in the midst of the Republican primaries.

I thought it was very interesting that this documentary was shot through the eyes and perceptions of not only a registered Democrat, but the daughter of Nancy Pelosi who is a renowned figure of the Democratic Party. Despite her loyalty to the opposing party, Pelosi was able to put her bias aside and never displayed nor promoted her political ideologies in the film other than mentioning the fact that she is a registered Democrat. However, that is not to say that she never gave the former president a run for his money. There are numerous scenes in which she pushes Bush's buttons such as the scene towards the end of the documentary when she asks him why she should vote for him.

Pelosi provides viewers with an insight as to what went occurred on the campaign bus. Behind the scenes, Bush was cracking jokes and having a good time as a way to cope with the stresses of running for office and was always the life of the party. She interviewed those who advised Bush throughout his campaign in 2000 such as Karl Rove, and displayed that his behaviors and actions were under the guidance of many people. Another thing that was depicted was the toll that traveling on a campaign took on both her and her fellow journalists who were covering Bush's trail. It was revealed that the chaos and tediousness of life on the Bush campaign trail took a draining toll on Pelosi and the other journalists who at times were struggling to preserve their sanity.

Journey's with George also uncovers the tactics led him to win the Republican nomination for president. Bush's advisors were well aware of both his strengths and weaknesses. They as well as some of the public were aware that Bush does not do the best job of conveying that he is the most intellectual person out of the other candidates. However, they knew that his biggest strength was his ability to light up a room through his sense of humor and personable nature. Therefore, they played from this strength and used the former presidents ability to charm as a means to get votes as their main tactic. In one portion of the film, one of his advisors states that he is an amazing hand shaker. Also, Pelosi asked a supporter of his before one of his campaign rallies what they like about Bush's policies and message. The supporter responded that he just liked him.

In the end, I really enjoyed watching this film because it showed what it is like to be on a campaign and was humorous at times. Pelosi also did a great job of showing that Bush basically won the nation by making the race into a popularity contest. Although Bush was not the most articulate speaker of the candidates that year, he was the one that the average Joe would choose to have a beer with and that ultimately lead to victory in both the Republican primaries and the 2000 presidential election.

The Rise of Romney

In 2008, Mitt Romney finished third in the Republican primaries behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee with 8.6% of the vote. This time around, things are looking good for Romney. A poll conducted by CNN reveals that Romney is in the lead with 23%. Trailing him is business guru turned politician Herman Cain with 20% of the vote, and Texas Governor Rick Perry who holds 14%. His campaign reports that they have raised $32 million so far. However, this is not what is truly impressive. In the third quarter Romney has raised a total of $14.16 million with the help of from around 56,000 contributors. It seems like the Governor from Massachusetts has stepped his game up another a level or two since the last time he ran for the nomination two years ago. But what has he done differently this time?

After reading these statistics, it is clear that his mistakes in 2008 have taught what not to do in his current bid for the nomination. According Erin McPike and Carl M. Cannon of realclearpolitics.com in their article titled Romney Applies Lessons of 2008 to 2012 Run, "He pissed everybody off by being elite, borrowing heavily form others' ideas, and attacking every other campaign on TV or in debates. There's been none of that this time." Four years ago, Romney went out of his way to charm the press and catered to their wants by making himself available. Today his actions show that he is done being nice to reporters and has no problems giving them the cold shoulder. Former Romney aids joke about their strategy to invest money into the straw poles, which made his 2008 campaign seem strong when he won the Iowa straw pole. However, this meant nothing because he didn't win the Iowa caucus that year. As a result, he places little importance on the straw poles. He also no longer invests in expensive TV ads and has turned to less expensive web videos to draw support. In his last campaign, Romney went fishing for votes from grass-roots conservative crowd by making immigration his most important issue . Currently,  he is looking to appeal to the entire political spectrum by placing job creation at the top of his priority list.

Another thing that has resulted in his success is the current state of  our nation. In 2008, American was drained for the chaos induced from the Bush administration and craved change. Romney's business background most likely put him at a disadvantage because at this time many American's saw advocates of big business' as a source of our nation's grievances, and in particular the economy. However, four years later Romney's business experience now puts him at an advantage because many adhere to the notion that a business minded person as president would lead to our economy getting back on track. New Jersey Governer Chris Christie who had thoughts of running for the nomination has said that "Mitt Romney is the man we need to lead America and we need him now."

However, this does not mean Romney is a shoe-in for the Republican nomination. His Mormon background will make it harder for him to obtain the votes from the Republican Party's influential Born-Again Christian crowd. Also, the belief that America needs a business minded person as our president has proven to be a double-edged sword for him because Herman Cain is his biggest competition. The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza is breathing down his neck in the polls since he is trailing him by only 3%. Although Rick Perry's past and stumbles in debates has reduced his electability, it has given a surge to Cain's campaign and made his 9-9-9 plan look more appealing. On the flip side, his lack of political experience seems to give Romney the edge. Hopefully for Romney's sake, his political experience will prevent Cain from putting a halt to his increasing support.

Links used:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/11/chris-christie-mitt-romney_n_1005326.html

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/14/romney-brings-in-more-than-14-million-during-third-quarter/?hpt=po_bn1

http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/15/politics/herman-cain-rise/#1_undefined,0_

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/07/15/romney_applies_lessons_of_2008_to_2012_run_110582-2.html